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Printable Version
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Wafer Sales
Turning-Points
Forecasts |
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Service Number: |
14c |
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Forecast Horizon: |
5 months |
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Total Reports: |
12 |
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Refund Guarantee Period (months): |
3 |
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Price (annual): |
$16,800 |
Report
Includes:
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Forecast of Total
Wafer Sales (sq. in.) Worldwide
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Geographic
forecasts of 8" Wafers:
Worldwide, North America, Europe,
Japan, and Asia-Pacific
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Complimentary Industry Statistics Reports -
Semiconductor Equipment and/or ICs
(view
list)
Your
Competitive Advantage:
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Optimize
manufacturing load with fewer adjustments (forecasts aren’t
modified retroactively)
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Manage inventory
to increase turns and eliminate write-offs
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Plan capacity
more accurately
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Manage business
based on facts (forecasts exclude opinions and
extrapolations)
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Purely
Quantitative Forecast Model (*)
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Top-down forecast to
counterbalance other sources
Background:
Our
quantitative model generates a forecast of the theoretical Underlying
Demand for Worldwide Wafer Shipments. Actual wafer shipments
follow a direction so as to converge with the Underlying Demand. Even a
slight negative change in the slope of Underlying Demand has the
potential to start a major recession and vice versa.
Sample Charts:
The chart below shows
the correlation between Advanced Forecasting’s Turning-Points Forecast
and Worldwide Sales of Wafers (source: SEMI). As a rule, actuals oscillate
around the forecast of Underlying Demand. A deviation of significant
magnitude triggers a correction.
Legend, chart above:
(1) Underlying Demand is forecasted to slow down. (2) Actuals overheat
in comparison to Underlying Demand, (3) resulting in a build up of
capacity and inventory, triggering an early and steep collapse. (4) A
premature and stronger recovery in 2002 unsupported by Underlying Demand
led to a slight downward correction in the second half. (5) From that
point on, actuals increased and converged with the predicted demand. (6)
The forecast accurately predicted that there would be a slowdown in the
2nd half of 2004.
Consider also :
To obtain a more complete
view of the future of the IC industry, consider our base service, the
IC Revenues Cycle Forecast. It
presents a rolling 19-month horizon
of the Underlying Demand for Worldwide IC consumption, forecasts for North
America, Europe, Japan, and Asia-Pacific, and our exclusive IC Recovery Index.
In addition you will benefit from our analysis and interpretation which appear
only in this service.
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