Saratoga, California -- August 16, 2004 -- Downgrading of semiconductor stocks, decreasing book-to-bill ratio, and lowered revenue expectations have perpetuated the belief that the current softening in the semiconductor market will lead to the end of the boom. This is not the case, states Advanced Forecasting, a semiconductor forecasting house. The softness is most likely temporary and could be the correction needed to prevent extreme over-heating which would trigger another recession.  

 “The recent softness has come as a surprise to the majority of the semiconductor market, but not to those that follow our Wafer Sales Turning-Points Forecasts or Materials and Equipment-Components Turning-Points Forecasts,” said Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting. “Our quantitative forecasts alerted clients in Q1 of 2004 that a slowdown would happen in the third quarter.”    

Sales of semiconductor equipment will stay strong through the rest of the year, as Advanced Forecasting expects the market will grow 65% - 70% over 2003, the same growth rate it published at the beginning of 2004.   

Recently, industry forecasters have increased their 2004 growth rate predictions for the semiconductor equipment market either close to or exceeding the 60% mark, including SEMI’s consensus forecast. The same forecasts were in the range of 35% to 48% in January 2004. Currently, most bookings of equipment for 2004 have already been recorded, increasing the chance of an accurate forecast. “The trick is to predict the growth rate a year in advance, not at end of the year when bookings are already known,” stated Luis, adding that “the only tools capable of accurately predicting changes in direction for a market are those that use purely quantitative models, and hard data as input, independent of human opinion.”  

Founded in 1987, Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand for semiconductors, semiconductor equipment and materials industries. Reliance on quantitative models has allowed Advanced Forecasting to accurately predict 90% of the IC Industry’s major turning points since inception. Advanced Forecasting uses a purely quantitative forecasting model, a unique and highly sought-after viewpoint that is never modified retroactively. It provides the industry's most accurate market forecasts and has acquired, in eighteen years, a user base of more than 400 companies worldwide. 

Contact:

Rosa Luis
Director of Marketing and Sales
Advanced Forecasting
rosal@adv-forecast.com
Phone: 1.408.725.2964

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