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Semiconductor
Forecaster Makes Public its Prediction for 2006 Turning Point
Saratoga, California - August 1, 2005 – An upward turning-point in the
IC Cycle will occur in the first quarter of 2006, claims Advanced
Forecasting, a semiconductor-oriented
forecasting house.
This prediction is based on the same quantitative model that has
accurately called each of the IC Cycle turning points since 1986,
including the 2001 recession.
The forecasted
change in direction is welcome news for those continuing to suffer from
flat to negative growth since the second half of last year. Worldwide IC
revenues have continued a
zigzag growth-decline pattern following a peak in November 2004.
According to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) worldwide IC
shipments for June 2005 were $17.2B, decreasing 0.5%(*) over May 2005
but increasing 1.5%(*) over June of last year (*calculated on a 3-month
moving average). Revenues for the first six months of 2005 were 7.5%
over the same period in 2004. In addition, worldwide IC Units in June
2005 increased 2.8%(*) sequentially and 1.0%(*) year-over-year.
“Our quantitative
model predicted the 2006 turning-point in late 2004, after predicting
that 2005 would be a nearly horizontal year,” said Rosa Luis, Director
of Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting. “The forecasted
Underlying Demand in 2006 will be much stronger than that of IC
revenues, causing a turning-point to occur in order for the two to
converge.” Underlying Demand, as calculated by Advanced Forecasting’s
models, is the primary influence on the behavior of IC shipments as they
tend to oscillate around Underlying Demand.
“The IC Revenues
Cycle Forecast foretold in November 2004 that the upturn would take
place in 2006, and we are only now beginning to see positive signs in
the industry that usually precede an upturn,” continued Luis. “For
example, wafer shipments are increasing,
fab utilization improves as predicted, and semiconductor equipment
bookings have slowly begun to gain strength.”
“Although
semiconductors performed well in 1H-05, it would be dangerous to simply
extrapolate it into 2H-05,” cautioned Dr. Moshe Handelsman, founder of
Advanced Forecasting, adding that “any
attempt to predict the present boom/bust cycle is likely to be
inaccurate if it relies on extrapolations. A better way is through
quantitative models which use hard numbers as input and thus are
unbiased”.
Founded in 1987,
Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand for
semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, and materials industries. Its
unique features are using purely quantitative input and never
retroactively modifying its forecasts. Advanced Forecasting provides the
industry’s most accurate forecasts and has acquired a user base of more
than 400 companies worldwide.
Contact:
Rosa Luis
Director of
Marketing and Sales
Advanced Forecasting
rosal@adv-forecast.com
Toll Free:
1.888.658.3227
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