Cupertino, California - July 9, 2003 - While the semiconductor industry continues to be plagued by an uncertainty of when the current slow recovery will transform into a stronger one, the beginning of the semiconductor upsurge is in sight although layoffs persist and budgets remain constrained. As Underlying Demand and actual IC shipments start to converge, stronger growth is anticipated. Because of its cyclical nature, the semiconductor industry will see an upswing, but the question on everyone's mind is "when exactly will it happen?"

The start of the semiconductor escalation is imminent, claims Advanced Forecasting, a Semiconductor and Equipment and Materials forecasting company. Advanced Forecasting Data shows that the semiconductor industry is entering a significant recovery period. While this recovery will not demonstrate the steep growth rate experienced during the 1999 to 2000 boom period, Advanced Forecasting projected, a year and a half in advance in its newsletter to clients, that the impending increase will be strong nonetheless.

"The next stage of the recovery was set in motion by factors we measured a year and half ago," says Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting. "Knowing the timing of that turning-point is crucial in order for companies to be able to prepare. Advanced Forecasting informed its clients that it would occur during Q4-2003, and we stand behind that forecast."

Several trends in the semiconductor industry, such as the expansion of foundries in Asia and increasing IC unit sales that reached 7.28B in May 2003, only 5% below its peak in late 2000, point toward a robust recovery. Despite indications toward the positive, the general feeling is that the recovery cannot take place without the "killer app". "The existence of a 'killer app' isn't required for a recovery to take place," says Luis. "The Underlying Demand for ICs is the required driver which allows 'killer apps' to develop and be successful."

Some of Advanced Forecasting forecasts will be presented on July 15th at Semicon West 2003 in San Francisco during SEMI's Market Briefing and later during its annual Forecasting Workshop. For more information on these events, please visit SEMI at www.semi.org.

Advanced Forecasting offers quantitative forecasts of all ICs, semiconductor equipment (Front-End and Back-End), disk drives, PCBs, Fab Capacity Utilization, Wafer Shipments, and DRAM ASPs. Forecast rolling horizons extend up to 19 months. It is the only forecasting firm that has guaranteed its forecasting services with a full refund period since its inception (1986).

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