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Workshop Teaches the Semiconductor & Equipment Industries
Accurate Forecasting Techniques
Cupertino,
California – June 25, 2002 – Human nature is largely to
blame for the deep recession of 2001 in the Semiconductor and related
industries. Forecasts based on human opinion snowballed into even more
extreme extrapolations, artificially inflating real IC demand in the most
recent silicon cycle. Known for its unique methodology and contrasting -
yet accurate -view of the industry's direction, the quantitative-based
forecasting firm of Advanced Forecasting, Inc. (AFI) focuses an upcoming
workshop on how to avoid the main causes of inaccurate forecasting.
Total Semiconductor demand has been painfully slow to
increase after bouncing along the bottom since September 2001, and
affiliated industries continue in agonizing wait for additional signs of
improved business conditions. In these early stages of recovery, industry
executives will have a chance to prepare for the next industry
"Turning-Point", as AFI's founder, Dr. Moshe Handelsman, will again
conduct a customized Forecasting Workshop for the 14th consecutive year at
SEMICON West on July 23rd. Participants will learn how to forecast turning
points as well as other practical forecasting and analyses skills, which
can be implemented immediately in the workplace.
"In light of its worst recession, the Semiconductor Industry
deserves proven forecasting techniques that add an objective input to a
company's planning process," says Dr. Handelsman. "Key decision-makers
need not be influenced by extrapolations from qualitative sources such as
customers, sales departments, and analysts that rely on surveying these
sources."
The four-hour forecasting workshop will include hands-on
training for identifying and predicting the peaks and valleys of the
silicon business cycle, as well as cycles of specific products, and a
quick process for evaluating the merits of a possible forecast. Dr.
Handelsman will also present and analyze several of his forecasts of IC
demand, semiconductor equipment sales, and wafer shipments for 2002.
Reliance on quantitative models has helped AFI to accurately
predict 90% of the IC Industry's major turning points over the past 16
years. AFI was identified by industry watchers as having accurately
forecasted early the Q3-2000 peak
of IC sales. Furthermore, though industry sources have provided a range of
growth forecasts for 2002, AFI has advised since March 2001 that its
long-term forecasts depicted only a slow recovery due to weak underlying
demand for ICs and equipment.
AFI offers
quantitative forecasts of all ICs, semiconductor equipment (Front-End and
Back-End), disk drives, PCBs, Fab Capacity Utilization, Wafer Shipments,
and DRAM ASPs. Forecast rolling horizons extend up to 29 months. AFI is
the only forecasting firm that has guaranteed its forecasting services
with a full refund period since its inception (1986).
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