Cupertino, Cupertino, California - June 17, 2003 - Blame for the 2001 recession plaguing the semiconductor and its related industries lies directly with human nature. Forecasts based on human opinion stemmed from over-exuberant extrapolations, artificially inflating real IC demand during the most recent silicon cycle. Known for its unique methodology and often-contrasting, yet accurate, view of the industry's direction, the quantitative-based forecasting firm of Advanced Forecasting focuses an upcoming workshop on how to avoid the basis of inaccurate forecasting.

Total semiconductor demand has been painfully slow to strengthen. Current demand has increased from the low point reached in September 2001 to just 20% of its Q3-00 high. Affiliated industries continue an agonizing wait for additional signs of improved business conditions. In this stage of recovery, industry executives will have a chance to prepare for the next industry "Turning-Point", as Advanced Forecasting president, Dr. Moshe Handelsman, will conduct a Forecasting Workshop for the 15th consecutive year at SEMICON West on July 15th. Participants will learn how to forecast turning points as well as other practical forecasting and analyses skills, which can be implemented immediately in the workplace.

"In light of its worst recession, the semiconductor Industry deserves proven forecasting techniques that add an objective input to a company's planning process," says Rosa Luis, Marketing and Sales Manager for Advanced Forecasting. "Key decision-makers need not be influenced by extrapolations from qualitative sources such as customers, sales departments, and analysts that rely on surveying these sources."

The four-hour forecasting workshop will include hands-on training for identifying and predicting the peaks and valleys of the silicon business cycle, as well as cycles of specific products, and a quick process for evaluating the merits of a possible forecast. Dr. Handelsman will also present and analyze several of his forecasts of IC demand, semiconductor equipment sales, and wafer shipments for 2003.

Reliance on quantitative models has allowed Advanced Forecasting to accurately predict 90% of the IC Industry's major turning points over the last 17 years. It was identified by industry watchers as having accurately forecasted the Q3-00 peak of IC sales. Furthermore, though industry sources had provided a range of growth forecasts for 2002, Advanced Forecasting had advised since March 2001 that its long-term forecasts depicted only a slow recovery due to weak underlying demand for ICs and equipment. The result? Year 2002 concluded with less than two percent IC revenues growth.

For workshop registration information contact Rosa Luis. AFC offers quantitative forecasts of all ICs, semiconductor equipment (Front-End and Back-End), disk drives, PCBs, Fab Capacity Utilization, Wafer Shipments, and DRAM ASPs. Forecast rolling horizons extend up to 19 months. It is the only forecasting firm that has guaranteed its forecasting services with a full refund period since its inception (1986).

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