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Semiconductor Wafer
Shipments to Reach a Bottom in Q2-05, reports Advanced Forecasting
May 9, 2005 – Saratoga, CA –Total wafer shipments in Q1-2005 (1,465 M
sq. in.) have declined 10% from a peak in Q3-2004, but are expected to
reach a bottom in the second quarter of 2005, according to Advanced
Forecasting, a leading forecasting house. Sales in Q1-2005 declined 1.4%
from the previous quarter and were 4.2% lower then Q1-2004.
“Our Wafer Forecast accurately predicted, five months in advance, a
slowdown beginning in Q3-04 that would last until Q2-05,” said Rosa
Luis, Director of Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting. “We
reported to clients in early 2004 that the industry, which had been on a
strong increase for more than 18 months, would lose momentum and peak in
July 2004.” In actual, from Q4-2002 to Q3-2004 shipments increased
50.4%, from 1,083 M sq. in. to 1,629 M sq. in. This forecast, as with
each one of the firms’ quantitative-based forecasts, requires no
retroactive modifications and accurately captures the oscillations in
industry segments.
“As wafers are an enabling ingredient in the manufacturing process of
semiconductors, a forecast that accurately predicts demand for wafers
will also correlate to the numerous semiconductor materials, components,
and equipment,” stated Dr. Moshe Handelsman, President of Advanced
Forecasting, adding that “this list also includes worldwide shipments of
IC units, the end product.” It is for this reason that Advanced
Forecasting has found during its 19 years of analyzing client data that
3 out of every 4 products in the industry correlate directly or
indirectly with the forecast used to predict wafer sales.
Advanced Forecasting will publicly discuss the forecasting techniques
employed in its monthly forecasts at the 17th annual forecast
seminar during Semicon West. Additional forecasts for the Wafer segment
as well as IC Revenues, Semiconductor Equipment, and Materials will be
disclosed. For information on this seminar please visit:
http://www.adv-forecast.com/Forecast%20Seminar.htm
Founded in 1987, Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand
for semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, and materials industries.
Its unique features are using purely quantitative input and never
retroactively modifying its forecasts. Advanced Forecasting provides the
industry’s most accurate forecasts and has acquired a user base of more
than 400 companies worldwide.
Contact:
Rosa Luis
Director of Marketing
and Sales
Advanced Forecasting
rosal@adv-forecast.com
Phone: 1.408.725.2964
Toll Free:
1.888.658.3227
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