Accelerated Growth in Semiconductor Equipment Segments (e.g., Etch, CVD) to Plateau and Possibly Decline in 2H-06

 

 

Saratoga, California – May 15, 2006 – Worldwide Etch Equipment monthly billings are expected to increase nearly 33% from the beginning of 2006 into Q2-06, estimates Advanced Forecasting, a quantitative forecasting house. Following the segment sales’ decline of 18.2% in the twelve months ending in February over the previous period, a growth in the range of 30% would bring it to its highest level since 2000. The higher than average strength expected in demand from Taiwan will be a major driver behind the segment’s robust growth. However, following this initial increase, etch equipment will plateau mid-year and into Q3-06 with a potential decline in Q4-06.

 

“The etch equipment segment has been struggling to recover since the 83% decline it suffered during the 2001 recession, with the exception of a robust 1H-04,” said Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting. “The forecast of a slowdown in the second half of this year is a derivative of the forecasting model that captured the 2001 decline as well as the weakness in the second half of 2004, which caught most of the industry by surprise.”

 

Click here to see the etch equipment forecast through Q3-06.

 

Overall worldwide wafer processing equipment billings have declined 14.6% and bookings declined 21.6% (see table below for historical data), impacted heavily by the declines in Expose and Write, Inspection and Measurement, Etch, and CVD equipment, the four segments composing a total of 64% market share. Each equipment segment is expected to be affected by the plateau in the second half of 2006 although at different magnitudes. 

Change from the Current 12-Month Period Ending in 2/06 Versus the Preceding 12-Months
	CVD	Etch	Inspection & Measurement	Expose & Write	Wafer Processing
Bookings	-22.0%	-16.7%	-19.0%	-18.6%	-21.6%
Billings	-14.7%	-18.2%	-15.5%	-12.4%	-14.6%

 

“Our portfolio of forecasts of semiconductor equipment by segment is accurately predicting the demand for each product at a granular level with average horizons of 9 months,” continued Luis. “They cover the segments of Ion Implant, Mask/Reticle, Resist, Sputter, CMP, Test, Assembly and Packaging, etc., on worldwide and regional levels.”

 

Founded in 1987, Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand for semiconductors, semiconductor equipment by segment, and materials industries. Its unique features are using purely quantitative input and never retroactively modifying its forecasts. Advanced Forecasting provides the industry’s most accurate forecasts and has acquired a user base of more than 400 companies worldwide.

 

Contact:

Rosa Luis

Director of Marketing and Sales

Advanced Forecasting

rosal@adv-forecast.com

Toll Free: 1.888.658.3227

  

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