Saratoga, California, February 20, 2004 - The semiconductor equipment market will experience extremely robust growth in 2004, says Advanced Forecasting, a semiconductor forecasting house. Currently, the IC cycle is in a boom period, over-capacity has been eliminated, and equipment will undergo a considerable ramp up.

"Based on our quantitative forecasting model for equipment, Advanced Forecasting believes that growth for 2004 will be stronger than 55% over 2003," said Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting. "The semiconductor equipment market is coming from such a low bottom, due to reduced capital investment from 2001, that in order to keep up with escalating IC demand, equipment will have to grow very quickly."

In the last several weeks, a number of foundries and IDMs have released their expected capital expenditure budgets for 2004. The majority of these announcements showed more than thirty percent growth over 2003, supporting Advanced Forecasting's position that the industry will add needed capacity quite rapidly. "Currently, actual equipment shipments are significantly below our quantitative forecast of underlying demand," said Luis. "The over-capacity experienced in 2000 has largely been eliminated and with 300mm technology becoming prevalent, we'll experience the strong upsurge in equipment needed to realign with industry demand. Because this expansion has been delayed, prices are escalating and lead-time for equipment is growing, laying the groundwork for an over-heated situation." Advanced Forecasting monitors and reports the danger of over-heating in its monthly publication.

Bookings for semiconductor equipment have already risen steadily since their bottom in 2Q-2003. Cumulative bookings during 2003 amounted to $22.3 billion, an 11 percent growth over 2002. While the IC industry began recovering from the 2001 recession in 2002, equipment revenue remained flat due in large part to over-capacity from the 1999-2000 boom.

Founded in 1987, Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand for semiconductors, semiconductor equipment and materials industries. Advanced Forecasting uses a purely quantitative forecasting model, a unique and highly sought-after viewpoint that is never modified retroactively, thus appealing to high-level executives and industry leaders. It provides the industry's most accurate market forecasts and has acquired, in its seventeen years, a user base of more than 400 companies worldwide.

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