December 8, 2004 - Saratoga, CA – Despite the current slowdown in the semiconductor industry, 2004 will end as a strong growth year.  Semiconductors will gain approximately 30% over 2003, semiconductor equipment will boast about 70% growth, and silicon wafers will grow about 20%. All of these growth rates are very close to the original forecast by Advanced Forecasting at the very beginning of 2004.  

Accelerated growth started the year off on the right foot, but by the fourth quarter, the boom had lost its momentum. In spite of this, worldwide sales of ICs during the first ten months of 2004 totaled $145.2 billion, a 32% increase from the same period in 2003 (analysis is based on a 3-month moving average). Taking into consideration the current slowdown, IC sales for 2004 are likely to end at about 30%. Advanced Forecasting predicted in January of 2004 that the growth of this segment would be 33% - 35% for 2004 over 2003.  

Shipments of semiconductor equipment worldwide during the first nine months of 2004 reached $27.3 billion, a 79% increase from the same period in 2003. Allowing for the current decline, semiconductor equipment sales for 2004 are likely to end at close to 70%. In January of 2004, Advanced Forecasting disclosed at the ISS2004 conference in Pebble Beach, that it predicted growth to be in excess of 50%, and informed exclusively its clients that growth would be 65% - 70% for the segment.  

Advanced Forecasting’s Materials and Equipment-Components Turning Points Forecast alerted as early as March of 2004 that a slowdown was pending for the second half of the year.  The impact of this slowdown is currently felt throughout the industry. In spite of it, sales of silicon wafers during the first nine months of 2004 yielded a 27% increase over the same period a year earlier. Our forecast in January 2004 promised an increase of 22% - 26%.     

“If one wonders how the aforementioned accuracy can be achieved, and repeated, during the past 18 years,” posed Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting, “the answer resides in using a purely quantitative forecast model that avoids extrapolations, the pitfall of other methodologies which employ surveys as an input”.  

Founded in 1987, Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand for semiconductors, semiconductor equipment and materials industries. Reliance on quantitative models has allowed Advanced Forecasting to accurately predict 90% of the IC Industry’s major turning points since inception. Advanced Forecasting uses a purely quantitative forecasting model, a unique and highly sought-after viewpoint that is never modified retroactively. It provides the industry's most accurate market forecasts and has acquired, in eighteen years, a user base of more than 400 companies worldwide.

Back to Press Releases

Back to Top