Saratoga, CA -- December 8, 2003 - As the end of calendar 2003 nears, the annual practice of modifying forecasts issued early in the year, to bring them in-line with actual sales data, is gathering a unique momentum to compensate for the "surprising" strength of the current recovery. Advanced Forecasting refrains from participating in this practice and instead stands firmly behind its forecast published a year and a half ago. That forecast showed a decline during the first several months of 2003 and a strong upturn in revenues during the second half. Comparison to actual semiconductor industry data demonstrates the forecast's accuracy.

"We take forecasting very seriously. Our accurate forecast which doesn't continually change allows decision makers to be confident in their plans because they won't have to be frequently modified," said Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting. "Had we changed our forecast to reflect the opinions circulating in the industry, we never would have been able to historically predict the major turning-points of the last eighteen years."

IC Cycle revenue growth for 2004 will continue to increase, according to Advanced Forecasting's model. "When our model [in Q2 2002] began to show strong growth beginning in late 2003, it was difficult to believe that it would happen," said Luis. "Knowing when that growth would begin and to where it could extend, allows our users to prepare for the upswing by ramping up production and capacity, avoiding the shortages that have recently become widespread."

Knowing when a turning-point is going to occur in the IC Cycle is crucial to the planning process. When the model indicates that the industry will begin to slow down, it is time to scale back expansion plans, reduce inventory, and stop hiring. Conversely, when the model suggests an upward direction, it is time to plan for gaining market-share by being prepared for strong demand.

Advanced Forecasting's purely quantitative models use measurements of economic factors as input. They refrain from using industry data, such as Bookings and Billings, because they add an element of extrapolation to the forecast, thereby missing important turning-points.

"A truly quantitative model does not require retroactive revisions, therefore we are very confident when making statements about the future of this industry," said Luis. "Those that heed our warnings can celebrate happily during the booms and avoid some suffering during the busts."

Advanced Forecasting offers quantitative forecasts of all ICs, semiconductor equipment (Front-End and Back-End), Fab Capacity Utilization, Wafer Shipments, and DRAM ASPs. It is the only forecasting firm that has guaranteed its forecasting services with a full refund period since its inception (1986).

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