Semiconductors Up 95%
from 2003; Are Silicon Cycles A Thing of the Past?
Saratoga, CA –
December 12, 2005 – The volatility that has wrecked havoc on the IC
industry over the last several decades has diminished since it began
recovering from the 2001 recession. The current outlook appears sunny
per Advanced Forecasting, a quantitative forecasting house, which just
published
its 2006 forecast of double-digit growth for ICs. In addition, IC
Revenues in 2005 have already helped the current cycle surpass the
1999-2000 upswing in terms of growth from trough to peak, increasing
95.4% since their bottom in February 2003, while 2000 ended with growth
of 94% from a bottom in July 1998 to a peak in October 2000.
Do all of these
events indicate an end to the silicon cycles, confirming the decade-old
statement “no more cycles”?
“The 12% growth in
IC revenues over the last four months occurred at the time we predicted.
However, extrapolating that growth, and the continued trend since 2003,
into the future will perpetuate the over-heating and capacity buildup
that characteristically precede a recession,” warned Moshe Handelsman,
founder of
Advanced Forecasting, adding that “believing the volatility will be
diminished because the industry is maturing will yield the opposite
effect and could once again be very disastrous. Silicon cycles will
continue to exist despite the maturing nature of our industry”.
Due to their natural
tendency to extrapolate the current trend into the future,
decision-makers have historically realized a change in demand 4 - 6
months after a peak has already occurred, modifying their manufacturing
and marketing strategies while already deep in the recession. To
mitigate this natural human behavior, Advanced Forecasting has been
offering a unique quantitative index. “Our Recovery Index is a critical
tool that provides alerts at the time the IC industry enters a
recession, reaches the lowest point of a recession, and returns to a
normal rate of growth,” said Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing and Sales
for Advanced Forecasting. “It shortens the delay in
reacting to a change in the cycle, keeping the future outlook clear as
opposed to rose-colored.” The Recovery Index, updated monthly with no
retroactive modifications, has recently proven its value reassuring
decision makers that the IC industry has been in a healthy shape and
under no threat of recession since November 2003, as actual industry
sales have confirmed. Currently, the Recovery Index remains positive.
Founded in 1987,
Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand for
semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, and materials industries. Its
unique features are using purely quantitative input and never
retroactively modifying its forecasts. Advanced Forecasting provides the
industry’s most accurate forecasts and has acquired a user base of more
than 400 companies worldwide.
Contact:
Rosa Luis
Director of
Marketing and Sales
Advanced Forecasting
rosal@adv-forecast.com
Toll Free:
1.888.658.3227.
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