Forecast Beats Semiconductor Firms’ Revenue Guidance

Saratoga, California – November 14, 2005 – Forecasts of quarterly revenues and gross margins, proving more accurate than company guidance in most cases, are now being offered publicly by Advanced Forecasting, a long-time leading forecaster of the Silicon Cycle.  Due to its quantitative non-survey methodology, the firm’s reports are used to counterbalance company guidance and other estimates.  

The forecasts are geared toward investors in stocks of semiconductor and semiconductor equipment and materials companies. For the majority of the forecasts the outlook is up to 8 months in advance, with accuracy greater than 0.9 (correlation coefficient calculated over the last 10 quarters). 

The high correlation ratios indicate consistency over time, adding confidence to the applicability of the forecasts and their ability to provide a better estimate for future periods than other sources. “One example is our forecast of Texas Instruments (TXN). At the end of July 2005, TXN provided guidance for 3Q-05 centered at $3.42B. Our forecast, available in April, predicted $3.50B. Actual revenues were $3.59B,” clarified Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting.   

Similarly, Advanced Forecasting’s forecasts beat Teradyne’s (TER) guidance of $320M by predicting $390M while the actual quarter-end revenues were $387M. While Altera’s (ALTR) outlook was $270M, Advanced Forecasting predicted $295M and actual revenues were $292M for calendar Q3-05. 

Additional information on the forecasts and their historical performance is available at the following link: http://www.adv-forecast.com/Revenues_Gross_Margins_Forecast_Service.htm. 

All of Advanced Forecasting’s forecasts are based on quantitative models developed by Dr. Moshe Handelsman, founder, nearly two decades ago.  “As we have found in our core business, companies and investors have a difficult time accurately forecasting the future. They are especially vulnerable predicting turning-points in revenues and margins, which impact their investment results,” observed Handelsman, adding that “the guidance provided by companies for future quarters is often biased by human opinions. Our forecasts provide an objective view which is based only on hard numbers and quantitative methods, and not on opinions.” 

Founded in 1987, Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting turning points in demand for semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, wafers, and materials industries. The models have remained unchanged since inception, resulting in the industry’s most accurate forecast. Advanced Forecasting has acquired a user base of more than 400 companies worldwide.

Contact:

Rosa Luis

Director of Marketing and Sales

Advanced Forecasting

rosal@adv-forecast.com

Toll Free: 1.888.658.3227

Back to Press Releases

Back to Top