|
ASP to Fuel Forecasted
Upswing in Semiconductor Cycle in 2006
Saratoga, California – October 18, 2005 – The average selling price
(ASP) for total ICs is expected to resume growth in Q1-06, following a
15% decline from its high in January 2005 and a stagnation in August at
$1.58. Advanced Forecasting predicts that the continued increase in
sales of IC units will strengthen fab capacity utilization rates,
driving ASPs upward, thus fueling a
forecasted upswing in the Semiconductor Cycle in 2006.
Although the
ASP decline since February 2005 strongly resembles that of the 2001
recession, today’s situation is different and substantially more
optimistic. “Overheating of IC revenues and IC units relative to their
forecasted Underlying Demand is a non-issue, whereas in
2000 it was significant,” said Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing
and Sales for Advanced Forecasting, a forecasting house that uses only
quantitative factors in its models. The situation also differs from 2000
in which the forecasted growth rate of Underlying Demand sustained a
decline while at the same time IC sales continued to soar, exacerbating
the gap between the true demand and actual shipments. “The current
robustness of IC unit sales corroborates our forecast for fab
utilization that showed growth into Q4-05. As IC units continue to grow,
fab utilization rates will increase until supply is constrained, forcing
prices upward,” added Luis.
“Fab capacity utilization has been an accurate measure of the health of
the semiconductor industry. Fab capacity stood at 1.44 million wafers
per week (8” equivalent) and its utilization reached 89% in Q2-05, up
from an 86% minimum point in Q1-05,
in line with our forecast,”
continued Luis. In comparison, foundries were operating at 83%
utilization in September 2005, significantly lower than the 99% level
one year ago, and partially due to the increased foundry capacity of 35%
during the last year State-of the-art (300mm) fab capacity doubled
since Q1-04 to 100K wafers per week. Its utilization hovered around 91%
in Q2-05, slightly below the previous quarter’s level of 93%.
Founded in 1987, Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand
for semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, wafers, and materials
industries. The models have remained unchanged since inception,
resulting in the industry’s most accurate forecast. Advanced Forecasting
has acquired a user base of more than 400 companies worldwide.
Contact:
Rosa Luis
Director of
Marketing and Sales
Advanced Forecasting
rosal@adv-forecast.com
Toll Free:
1.888.658.3227
Back to Press Releases
Back to Top
|
