Upset IC Forecaster Pulls Out of SEMI Conference 

Semiconductor Business News
(01/03/03 08:19 p.m. EST)

CUPERTINO, Calif.--Market researcher Advanced Forecasting Inc. (AFI) said it will not participate at next week's Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) conference, due to what AFI claimed were time restrictions placed on the firm at the event.

AFI, along with other market research firms, were expected to participate on a panel discussion at the ISS conference. Sponsored by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade organization, ISS runs from Jan. 5-8 at Pebble Beach, Calif.

In an e-mail issued late today (Friday), AFI President Moshe Handelsman said he would not participate in the panel event, in spite of claims that he is the most accurate forecaster in the IC business.  See below for e-mail letter

"We regret that he pulled out," said a spokesman for SEMI of San Jose. "With the allotted time at the conference, we could not afford the time everyone would like." 

Here is a copy of AFI's letter send via e-mail:

Dear Editor,

If you are covering the 2003 Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS -- Pebble Beach, CA), you probably noticed our name on the agenda.  Since AFI has declined an invitation to participate in next week's event, I feel that I owe you an explanation.

The restrictions placed on AFI's participation in the 2003 ISS unfortunately strip away most of the valuable information that conference attendees expect from AFI.

Although AFI's quantitative-based forecasts have been more accurate than those of any other industry forecaster, we were invited only to participate in a brief five-person panel discussion and excluded from the press conference, while other summoned forecasters continue to present their views in full-scale sessions.

For nearly two decades, AFI has relied on its unique quantitative methodology to predict, in advance, the major Turning Points of the IC Cycle. Presenting these forecasts and their bearing require explanations that cannot be adequately addressed in a total of three-to-four slides, in a period of only a few minutes.

Similarly, being restricted to sitting on a panel where most panelists have the opportunity to elaborate on their annual forecasts, revised projections, and assumptions, significantly reduces the value to attendees, and at the same time has a strong potential to degrade the reputation that AFI has earned over the last two decades in the industry.

While other panelists provide a simplistic annual "growth rate" number..., AFI focuses on the timing of Turning-Points in underlying demand, and their impact on shipments. Participating in a panel discussion of "What is your opinion about the growth rate number for 2003?" is contrary to our focal point. 

The audience must ask themselves, "What value do these opinions offer if they were not able to foresee significant changes in underlying demand, such as the sales peak in 2000 and the deep decline in 2001?"

While we do not expect to be treated more favorably than other
forecasters, we will not play on an uneven field.  Therefore, we humbly declined to participate in the event.  However, given an appropriate forum, we will be glad to contribute to future industry symposia.

Moshe Handelsman, Ph.D.

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