Saratoga, California – January 10, 2005 -- In January 2004, Advanced
Forecasting published a release that shook the silicon industry:
"Worldwide wafer sales seem to be assured of strong growth at least until
the third quarter of 2004…however, the next downturn may arrive shortly
thereafter." In fact, silicon sales worldwide peaked in August 2004 and
have since been in a decline, directly in line with the firm’s forecast
for Underlying Demand.
"At the time of the release, no one wanted to believe that there could
be a slowdown in the second half of 2004 because the industry had been in
a boom period for 12 months," said Dr. Moshe Handelsman, founder and
president of Advanced Forecasting. "Fortunately, actual wafer sales have
followed the pattern of forecasted Underlying Demand and failed to
overheat as has been the case historically prior to peaks. Therefore, the
current slowdown has been relatively mild."
On Tuesday, January 11, 2005, Dr. Handelsman will discuss Advanced
Forecasting’s purely quantitative -based forecasts for 2005 at the ISS
conference in Half Moon Bay, CA. Among the forecasts presented will be the
IC Cycle forecast, which offers a 19 month horizon of IC Revenues. This
same forecast single-handedly predicted the recession of 2001 as well as
90% of the turning-points of the silicon cycle since 1986. Forecasts for
wafer sales and the semiconductor equipment markets will also be offered.
One intriguing issue that will be discussed during this presentation is
the possibility of a turning point forecasted for 2005. Will there be one?
Will this turning-point be similar to that of the 2001recession or will it
be mild as that of 1996?
As a prelude to his presentation, Dr. Handelsman will participate in
SEMI’s ISS U.S. webcast, at 12:00pm PST on Monday, January 10, 2005. To
register for this webcast, visit the SEMI home page
