Advanced Forecasting reaffirms its 2007 Semiconductor Forecast

July 10, 2007 – Saratoga, CA -- Advanced Forecasting, a Silicon-Valley quantitative forecasting group, has reaffirmed its forecast of February 2006 in which it alerted users to expect a significant downward turning-point in underlying demand for ICs in mid-2007.  Its proprietary “Recovery-Index” will identify the minimum point of this slowdown as well as when the IC industry will return to normal growth rate.

Several other forecasting sources have recently revised their forecasts to reflect this decrease in demand, modifying forecasts that were promising growth of approximately 10% for 2007 to a meager 2% or less.  Contrary to these other sources, Advanced Forecasting follows a unique policy of never modifying forecasts retroactively after publishing them. Its proprietary quantitative forecasting model allows the company to set accurate predictions well in advance — without any modification.

“Our ability to predict major inflection points (“Turning-Points”) of the IC cycle over the past 21 years is due only to using an unbiased model,” explained Dr. Moshe Handelsman, founder of Advanced Forecasting, adding that, “including opinions or surveys in forecasting methodology prevents any forecast from predicting a change in direction because human opinions rely on extrapolations.”

For 21 years, the company has been publishing monthly quantitative forecasts for various IC segments as well as semiconductor equipment and materials, from global consumption to the level of company-specific product lines. 

Regarding 2008, Dr. Handelsman is not ready to publicly divulge his company’s forecast.  However, he hints that it will surprise many of those who use extrapolations.  Advanced Forecasting provides its clients with the results of the Recovery Index, a forecasting model that identifies the minimum point of any recession.  This model performed perfectly in the 1996, 1998, and 2001 recessions, estimating accurately when the industry returned to normalcy. 

More details are available by meeting with Dr. Handelsman at the SemiconWest show, which takes place from July 16-19, 2007 at Moscone Center in San Francisco, CA. Please contact Advanced Forecasting to arrange a meeting, per the contact information below.

Founded in 1987, Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand for the semiconductors, semiconductor equipment by segment, and materials industries. Its unique specialties include using purely quantitative input and never retroactively modifying forecasts. Advanced Forecasting provides the industry’s most accurate forecasts and has acquired a user base of more than 400 companies worldwide.

Contact:

Dr. Moshe Handelsman

Advanced Forecasting

moshe@adv-forecast.com

Toll Free: 1.888.658.3227

  

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