Semiconductor Equipment - Accurate 2007 Forecast and a Warning about 2008

January 15, 2008 – Saratoga, CA --  Sales ($ billings) of Worldwide Wafer Processing Equipment in 2007 were 13% above the same period in 2006, based on the first eleven months of 2007. Since equipment bookings have been deteriorating continuously, it is expected that the final growth number for 2007 will be close to 10%.

In December 2006, Advanced Forecasting, Inc. informed its users that 2007 would bring 8.9% growth in comparison to 2006.  At that time, the company’s forecast was twice as high as that of the most optimistic forecaster speaking at the 2007 ISS, where forecasts ranged from 0.6% to 5%. 

Dr. Moshe Handelsman, founder of Advanced Forecasting, warned that decision-makers should be cautious if relying on some of the optimistic 2008 forecasts that have been circulating the industry recently.  “Forecasting models that are not purely quantitative have a terrible track record for predicting Turning-Points.  Any time you incorporate opinions in a forecast, you introduce extrapolations. Extrapolation can not predict a change in direction.”

Advanced Forecasting never changes its forecasts retroactively after they are published. Its predictions are based solely on quantitative input of measurements of economic factors that will impact demand for ICs and related industries.  Opinions, surveys, rumors, and wishful thinking are not used as input. The company was the only forecaster that accurately predicted the 2001 recession during the ISS 2000. It claims to predict all major ups and down of the IC Cycle and has done so for the last 22 years.

Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand for semiconductors, semiconductor equipment by segment, and materials industries. Its unique specialties include using purely quantitative input and never retroactively modifying forecasts. Advanced Forecasting provides the industry’s most accurate forecasts and has acquired a user base of more than 400 companies worldwide.

Contact:

Dr. Moshe Handelsman

Advanced Forecasting

moshe@adv-forecast.com

Toll Free: 1.888.658.3227

  

Back to Press Releases

Back to Top

Copyright © 2008 Advanced Forecasting. All rights reserved.