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Historical
Performance
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The following
examples exhibit the accuracy of Advanced Forecasting since its inception
in 1986.
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The monthly points of each
forecast are never modified after being published. For example, the point
on the IC Turning-Points forecast that predicted July 2002 was published
19 months earlier (in the January 2001 issue) and was not modified
afterwards. Since 1986, there were two exceptions to this rule; both due
to the wars with Iraq (1992 and 2003).
2005
Growth Predictions
Each prediction made by
Advanced Forecasting is published on the given date and never modified
retroactively due to its use of quantitative models. This policy differs
greatly from forecasters who use non-quantitative models and are forced
to periodically modify their forecast as per changes in the industry.
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Actual |
Prediction |
Date Published to Clients |
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2005 Semiconductor Equipment* |
-4.9% |
-3% - +1% |
January 10, 2005 |
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2005 IC Revenues** |
+7.8% |
0% to +3% |
December 10, 2004 |
* Wafer Processing Equipment,
based on a 3 month moving average
** IC = Semiconductors
excluding Discrete and Optoelectronics
To fairly compare
Advanced Forecasting's annual predictions to others, the following must
be considered:
1. The publication date
of when the original prediction was made.
2. The number of
modifications necessary to reach the "final" prediction.
Click here
to view
predictions made by forecasters and their respective publication dates.
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Decline
in the Second Half of 2004
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Published on May 10, 2003:
The latest data points of
the IC Cycle Forecast indicate that the growth rate of this upswing
will taper off at the end of 2004.
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One year later,
published May 10, 2004:
The
Materials and Equipment-Components Turning Points Forecast (a more
granular forecast) confirmed the slowdown to begin in the second
half of 2004
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2004 Growth Predictions
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Published on January 10, 2004, to clients:
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Actual |
Prediction |
Date Published to Clients |
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2004 Total Semiconductor Equipment |
+68% |
+65% to +70% |
February 10, 2004 |
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2004 IC Revenues |
+28% |
+33% to +35% |
January 10, 2004 |
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2004 Wafers |
+24% |
+22% to +26% |
January 10, 2004 |
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2003 Upswing
Published on March 10, 2002:
Advanced Forecasting's IC Cycle Forecast (Chart #2) reaches a
minimum point in mid-2003 and climbs in 2H-2003. Its upswing will
occur at the same time that actual IC shipments are likely to gain
momentum. |
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2002 Bottom – Predicted Growth for 2002
Published on January 10, 2002:
In contrast to the
IC growth projections between 14% - 20% by traditional sources, AF cautioned clients of negligible annual growth over 2001: “AF’s long-term IC Cycle Forecast does not support a scenario of strong growth in IC $ sales during 2002 –Be Careful.”
Within the same
report we added, “AF maintains that 2002 year-end sales will reach
approximately $12B/mo., yielding an annual growth of about 2% over
2001”.
*Result: 2002
Growth = 1.7% |
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The 2000 Bubble and the Crash That Followed
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Published on March 10, 2000:
Following an overall healthy business
climate in late
1999, AF warned of an
impending buildup of over-capacity:
“The
dome-shaped pattern that AF’s
long-term forecast is portraying for
the
first half of 2001 adds to our concern.
This forecast has
indicated for some
time a reduced growth rate for the
second half of
2000, that is now
evolving into a clear decline”.
*Result: 2001 was the worst recession
in history.
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Advanced Forecasting was the Only
Forecaster to Predict the 2001 Recession
On October ’00, analysts were asked when
they expected the next downturn to take place. This chart
illustrates each analyst’s prediction. Advanced Forecasting was the
only one that accurately predicted (as early as mid-1999) the peak
of the boom to occur in Q4-00.
Click to see a larger view
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Recovery Index: Alerts of the 1996 & 1998 Recessions
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In both the 1996 and
1998 recessions, the Recovery Index alerted the industry that it was
entering a downturn, and again when it was returning to a normal rate of
growth.
Advanced
Forecasting’s IC Recovery Index identifies the minimum points of IC
shipments. Accurate predictions of these turning-points is essential for
corporate planning at IC manufacturers as well as at Semiconductor
Equipment vendors (who lag the IC Cycle usually by 1-2 quarters).
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Recession of 1996
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Published on August 10, 1995:
Advanced Forecasting's model predicted a significant
reduction in the "True Demand" of IC for Q2 1996. In the second half
of 1995, the IC market has overheated, generating over-capacity and
inventories at the beginning of 1996. These caused a recession in Q1
1996, one quarter earlier than our forecast. (Please note that this
forecast is published 19 months in advance and is never modified
after publication.)
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The Strong
Upswing of 1992
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Advanced Forecasting's model indicated that in
mid-1991 the following months would begin a strong upturn, similar
to that in 1987.
Our clients received an early notice which allowed
them to prepare capacity and marketing efforts. The industry as a
whole was caught with insufficient capacity. From 1992 to 1995, our
model accurately predicted the IC Boom.
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The Unexpected Upturn of 1987
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During Q4 1986, while the IC industry was still
enduring one of its toughest recessions, Advanced Forecasting
predicted a strong upswing in 1987, reaching the previous peak of
1984!
Actual IC shipments followed through. Numerous firms
found themselves at the end of 1987 with insufficient capacity.
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