Advanced Forecasting - Materials and Equipment-Components Turning-Points Forecasts

Printable Version

Materials & Equipment-Components Turning-Points Forecasts
Service Number:	10
Forecast Horizon:	5 months
Total Reports:	12
Refund Guarantee Period (months):	3
Price (annual):	$17,500

Report Includes:

Correlation to Consumption of IC Units Worldwide
Correlation to Wafer Sales (which represents the production of ICs)
Regional forecasts of Wafer Sales: Worldwide, Americas, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, and Asia-Pacific
Comparison of Wafer Sales to IC Unit Shipments
Complimentary Industry Statistics Reports - Semiconductor Equipment and/or ICs (view list)

Your Competitive Advantage:

Optimize manufacturing load with fewer adjustments (forecasts aren’t modified retroactively)

Manage inventory to increase turns and eliminate write-offs

Plan capacity more accurately

Manage business based on facts (forecasts exclude opinions and extrapolations)

Purely Quantitative Forecast Model (*)

Top-down forecast to counterbalance other sources

Background:

Demand for Materials and Components of Semiconductor Equipment is derived from IC Units manufactured. Therefore, the applicability and accuracy of a forecast can easily be determined through overlaying it on historical data of actual IC Unit shipments. The model has shown the strongest correlation to sales of numerous company-specific semiconductor equipment, materials, and equipment-components product lines.

Sample Charts:

The chart below shows the correlation between Advanced Forecasting’s Turning-Points Forecast and Worldwide Sales of ICs (source: WSTS). As a rule, actuals oscillate around the forecast of Underlying Demand. A deviation of significant magnitude triggers a correction.

Legend, chart above: (1) Underlying Demand is forecasted to slow down. (2 Actuals overheat in comparison to Underlying Demand (3) resulting in a build up of capacity and inventory, triggering an early and steep collapse. (4) A premature and stronger recovery in 2002 unsupported by Underlying Demand led to a slight downward correction in the second half. (5) From that point on, actuals increased and converged with the predicted demand. (6) The forecast accurately predicted that there would be a slowdown in the 2nd half of 2004.

Legend, chart above: (1) During 1999, ICs followed the forecasted line to a seasonal softness at year end. (2) In 2000, a gap opened and accumulated indicating a major over-heating that caused sales to peak earlier than forecasted. (3) Sales dropped to a minimum point at the beginning of 2002 as forecasted, but recovered stronger than Underlying Demand could sustain. (4) The result was a decline at the end of 2002 that was steeper than seasonally justified. From that point on, actuals increased and converged with the predicted demand. (5) The forecast accurately predicted that there would be a slowdown in the 2nd half of 2004.

Consider also:

To obtain a more complete view of the future of the IC industry, consider our base service, the IC Revenues Cycle Forecast. It presents a rolling 19-month horizon of the Underlying Demand for Worldwide IC consumption, forecasts for North America, Europe, Japan, and Asia-Pacific, and our exclusive IC Recovery Index. In addition you will benefit from our analysis and interpretation which appear only in this service.