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Customized Forecasting Seminar

Advanced Forecasting's customized in-house Forecasting Seminar trains participants to identify and predict the peaks and valleys of the silicon business cycle. The course reviews major forecasting techniques used in the semiconductor equipment and materials industry, and their benefits and shortcomings.

             You will learn:
                                 ·     How to incorporate qualitative and quantitative forecasts
                                 ·       How to locate your company’s current position in the business cycle
                          ·       How to forecast industry turning-points
                                 ·       What strategies to execute in each state of the cycle
                                 ·       Practical forecasting and analysis skills to implement immediately in your
                                company

This seminar utilizes client’s sales data as examples. This makes the hands-on seminar immediately applicable to decision makers in the organization. It also allows for addressing issues that can’t be covered in a public seminar. The class emphasizes data analysis techniques that can identify the pattern of historical sales data, and uses them to increase the accuracy of forecasting future demand. Instructions include the use of leading indicators to forecast the future.

 Typical Seminar Outline:
                         ·       Business Cycle
                                       -    Suggested actions for each of the six business cycle stages
                                       -    How to identify your position in the business cycle
                         ·        Data patterns
                               -    Identifying and calculating trend, seasonality, and cycle
                               -    How to analyze “small” numbers and volatile patterns
                               -    Impact of units used in calculations on outcomes
                   ·        Forecasting methods to consider for the semiconductor industry
                               -    Which quantitative methods (including regression) have the greatest
                                    potential
                               -    Judgmental methods – widely used, but limited
                               -    Technological methods – for the longer run
                         ·        Matching situations with forecasting methods
                               -    Time Horizon
                               -    Level of detail – accuracy
                               -    Number of products/product lines
                               -    Purpose: planning vs. control
                               -    Volatility level
                               -    Existing planning procedures
                               -    Availability of data and their pattern
                               -    Ease of use and cost
                         ·        How to find and use leading indicators
                               -    How to use
                               -    When, how, and why they do/don’t work
                               -    Which are important to follow
                         ·      How to evaluate a forecast
                               -    Turning-points accuracy
                               -    Retroactive updates
                               -    Monthly vs. quarterly forecasts
                               -    Sources of information
                   ·      Questions and Answer 

Who should attend?

Managers and decision makers in the following areas: Business/Strategy Planning, Marketing & Sales, Production Planning, Operations, Materials Acquisition, and Financial Planning.

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